According to @StockMKTNewz on X (Jan 6, 2026), the S&P 500 has closed the year higher 68% of the time since 1900 (source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Jan 6, 2026). In years the market finishes higher, the average return is +18.1%, while in down years the average return is -14.9% (source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Jan 6, 2026; citing @LeverageShares). For crypto traders, these equity return tendencies matter because BTC and ETH have shown periods of positive correlation with U.S. equities, with BTC–S&P 500 60‑day correlation reaching around 0.36 during 2020–2021 (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync with Stocks, Jan 2022). This context can inform risk-on positioning in BTC and ETH during equity uptrends or hedging in potential drawdowns, aligned with the historical +18%/−15% equity return magnitudes (source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Jan 6, 2026; source: IMF, Jan 2022).

According to @StockMKTNewz, over the last 98 years the S&P 500 finished higher in 72 of 98 years (73.5%) and lower in 26 (26.5%), with 18 years of gains above 30% and 5 years of declines worse than 30%, based on their year-end return bins. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Jan 3, 2026. Based on these counts, rallies of 20% or more occurred in 36 years (36.7%) while drawdowns of 20% or more occurred in 6 years (6.1%), providing traders with base rates to size annual equity beta and calibrate tail-risk hedges. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Jan 3, 2026. For crypto, the IMF has documented that BTC and broader crypto have moved more in sync with equities since 2020, so a constructive S&P 500 regime can coincide with stronger risk appetite for BTC and ETH in cross-asset positioning. Source: International Monetary Fund blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, Jan 2022.